Why Shutting Out Migrants Fuels Smuggling

The migration debate in Germany and Europe is dominated by the terms “control” and “toughness.” From the Global Alliance To Counter Migrant Smuggling conference in Brussels to the CDU party convention and discussions of asylum reform in the Bundestag, the message is always the same: New, tougher measures are needed against irregular migration. The assumption: If you push back hard enough, you can influence the behavior of migrants and refugees. But a new study based on interviews with 80,000 migrants and 450 smugglers by the think tank Mixed Migration Centre, funded by the Robert Bosch Stiftung, paints a different picture. Tougher measures fuel the smuggling business and make migration riskier and more expensive. We need a policy that consistently strengthens options for legal migration and thereby creates real control.

Why do migrants and refugees turn to smugglers? The answer is simple. They see no prospects for regular migration. Forty-four percent of migrants consider irregular migration the easier option, while 39 percent see no alternative. Only three percent report having been pressured by smugglers. An example from Senegal illustrates this. Applicants wait up to two years for a visa appointment for Spain. An intermediary can shorten the wait for around EUR 1,000. Smugglers, on the other hand, charge only about EUR 600 for a boat crossing to Europe. Thus, irregular migration appears not only as the easiest but also as the cheapest option.

At first glance, the statistics on irregular migration to Europe seem to tell a success story. According to Frontex, the number of irregular border crossings across the Mediterranean fell from 239,000 in 2024 to 178,000 in 2025 – a 26 percent decline. Policymakers like to attribute this to their policies of increased controls and deterrence. But this is deceptive. A major reason for the decline is not the effectiveness of European migration policy, but the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Since the political upheaval in Syria, irregular arrivals have dropped sharply.

Contrary to the suggested trend, a closer look reveals that the demand for smuggling services has increased along major migration routes. 102 smugglers interviewed in 2024 and 2025 along the Central Mediterranean route report higher demand and rising incomes. They attribute this to tighter border security. Nearly half of the smugglers surveyed report having contact with border officials or the police without fear of serious consequences. It is therefore questionable if migration cooperation between the EU and countries such as Tunisia or Libya is having a lasting impact on the smuggling business. Smugglers surveyed in North Africa charge an average of nearly USD 1,000 for their services. If they switch to more dangerous routes or anticipate increased government scrutiny, they raise their prices. The smuggling business is, despite all efforts in recent years, resilient and adaptable.

Political leaders in Brussels and Berlin must not fall prey to the belief that only a hardline approach will bring greater control. Instead, they should use this period of declining irregular arrivals to improve legal migration channels. It is precisely these options that offer greater control over who migrates and how. Despite uncertain economic prospects, we still urgently need workers and skilled professionals from abroad, especially in light of demographic trends. Taking in refugees is not only a civilizational achievement but also in our foreign policy interest, especially in a world where democracies and human rights are under pressure.

The tools to achieve this are available: efficient and fair visa systems and migration agreements with countries outside Europe to support more regular migration, as well as effective refugee resettlement programs. Anyone who truly wants to combat smuggling of migrants must offer people alternatives. Otherwise, these policies will only strengthen the very networks they aim to dismantle. We must implement these measures more effectively and decisively.