Multi-Billion-Dollar Grounds for a New Direction in Climate Policy

The effects of climate change are intensifying the focus on adaptation and creating pressure to act. The increasing relevance of adaptation was also evident in the debates at the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference in Belém. In addition, a lack of ambition in climate protection, has made it increasingly likely that we will exceed the maximum global warming limit of 1.5 degrees established in the Paris Climate Agreement. As things stand, the world is heading for global warming of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees by the end of this century (source: United Nations – Emissions Gap Report 2024). The associated risks are immense, as the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out regularly and in increasing detail (source: IPCC – Climate Change 2022 Report).

However, research clearly shows that the more global temperatures rise, the harder it is for climate adaptation measures to avoid the consequences. For example, water-related adaptation could reduce around 90 percent of impacts up to warming of 1.5 degrees. With a warming of 3 degrees, the effectiveness drops to around 60 percent (source: Carbon Brief). Measures such as water management then reach their limits, which would mean acute water shortages for people in southern Europe, for example (source: Imperial College London – Grantham Institute).

Maintaining prosperity and improving living conditions are only possible with investments in ambitious climate protection and adaptation at the same time. In short, we need climate-resilient development paths that promote synergies between adaptation, economic innovation, development, and climate protection that consider the interplay of these areas – instead of playing them off against each other.

Instead of greater ambition in climate protection, however, there have recently been setbacks in many areas. For example at the EU level, the amendment of the Climate Act and watering down of the zero-emission target for new vehicles have altered important framework conditions. Such cuts are often justified with the argument that climate protection measures put the brakes on economic growth.

However, investments in economic development without climate mitigation are only effective in the short term. If climate protection and the Paris climate targets to stabilize temperatures are ignored, these investments will soon be negated by the consequences of progressive warming. Sustainable economic development and climate protection are therefore not contradictory. They must be considered together.

The immense pressure to act affects development, adaptation, economic innovation, and climate protection in equal measure, which is why investments in one area must not be made at the expense of another. Instead, they must be made simultaneously and in conjunction with each other. Green technologies are already superior in many areas. Electricity production from wind and solar, for example, is now cheaper than that from coal, gas, and oil and contributes to a reduction in electricity prices (source: International Renewable Energy Agency). At the same time, such decentralized energy systems bolster resilience to extreme weather events and also create independence in an increasingly fragile international environment.

Climate projections are often derided as “fearmongering.” Whittling away at climate protections is justified by the potential economic losses from the transition. However, the facts clearly show that the damage today is already substantial – and what should stoke fear are the scenarios outlining what may happen as global warming progresses. 

In fact, it is those who repeatedly claim that ambitious climate protection measures will lead to economic decline that could be accused of fearmongering. Fossil fuels are heavily subsidized in order to remain competitive, even though the costs of renewable energies continue to fall. The impressive progress made in green technologies shows that, from a purely market-based perspective, clinging to fossil fuels no longer makes sense. Green innovations are already driving growth today, whereas the costs of climate change are curtailing it.
 
The fear of declining economic power due to climate protection is therefore misplaced. Instead, the failure to protect the climate leads to actual economic losses from climate damage and stagnating innovation.

Focusing solely on economic factors obscures the many dimensions of a livable future. We should also see the opportunities that climate-resilient development can offer globally. Genuine quality of life and social stability are based on much more than economic growth. They include the health of citizens, the quality of education, the integrity of ecosystems, and the strength of social structures

A livable future is also the foundation of stable democracies. When trust in the state's ability to act wanes, when social inequality is exacerbated by environmental destruction, and when the younger generation sees itself robbed of its own future, the values that underpin our free societies erode. Climate protection is therefore also linked to strengthening democracy.

Climate issues are increasingly taking a back seat on the world stage as well as at the national and local levels. However, studies clearly show that people in all regions of the world expect more climate protection from their governments. A 2024 survey of people in 125 countries published in Nature Climate Change found that 69 percent of respondents are willing to spend one percent of their income on climate protection, while 89 percent expect their governments to show greater political commitment to climate protection.

At the same time, however, the study found that despite this global majority, individuals believe their stance to be in the minority view. Initiatives such as the 89 Percent Project, which make this majority opinion visible, are vital to reinvigorating the innovation potential of climate protection and in supporting government action. Bold political action is not only necessary today but can also win majority support in society. It offers excellent opportunities for a just, resilient future on a stable planet.