Demographic change creates opportunities for the German education system
Stuttgart, July 17, 2006 – Fewer children mean fewer pupils. And fewer pupils generate lower costs. This could save over 80 billion euros during the next 14 years. If general price and wage increases are taken into account, that sum rises to almost 100 billion euros. It should be invested in improved education, which is the best investment in Germany’s future. These are the results of the demographic study “Demographie als Chance: Demographische Entwicklung und Bildungssystem – Finanzielle Spielräume und Reformbedarf”.
The study on demographic development and the education system by Prognos AG, which was jointly commissioned by the Robert Bosch Stiftung and the daily newspaper “Die Welt”, reveals the scale of the financial impact of falling pupil numbers in the German school system, as well as how the funds released could be used to improve the quality and international competitiveness of the German education system. The number of school pupils in Germany will fall by more than 2 million by the year 2020, which is a 17% reduction compared to 2005. Numbers will fall more strongly in eastern Germany than in the west.
Demographic change in Germany is often discussed in terms of the risks to social security and prosperity it presents. The negative and costly effects of a smaller and older population are often the main focus of discussion. “The opportunities demographic change opens up are often ignored,” said Ingrid Hamm, the Director of the Robert Bosch Stiftung Management Board. The foundation’s expert commission “The Family and Demographic Change” chaired by the former Prime Minister of Saxony Kurt Biedenkopf stressed the central importance of education. “Given the demographic background of a shrinking society, no child should be left behind. Education must remain the most important aspect on the political agenda,” Ingrid Hamm stressed. As the number of school children falls, expenditure for school education in real terms (i.e. taking general price increases into account) in 2020 will be 11.5 billion euros lower than if the number of pupils remained unchanged. By as early as 2007, expenditure will be 1.2 billion euros lower. Between 2006 and 2020, that adds up to a decline in costs by 80 billion euros. Savings made possible through falling numbers of school children could fund 75% of a comprehensive reform of the school system, as shown by figures produced by Prognos for the Bavarian Industry Association.
“In view of the quality requirements for schools, we should use public funds intelligently,” Ingrid Hamm stated. “Investment in early education prevents higher expenditure in later educational phases and improves the chance of a successful educational biography. So we should above all invest in kindergartens and primary schools.”
According to the Prognos experts, failure to implement comprehensive reforms in school education will worsen Germany’s international competitiveness in the mid- to long term. The authors conclude that any alternative use of released funds outside the field of education would only appear to relieve the public budget. If jobs are lost in Germany to international competitors due to poor qualifications, social expenditure will potentially rise. And inadequate education also leads to a decline in productivity, lower incomes and correspondingly lower tax revenues in the long term.
Further information including a PDF download of the study is available at